FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 · ANALYTICS DASHBOARD
June 11 – July 19, 2026 · USA, Canada & Mexico · 104 Matches
| Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| Colombia | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| X | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| Y | 1 | −1 | 0 |
Where does our Elo model disagree with the market? Every team's pre-tournament win probability — computed from 125 years of Elo ratings — plotted against what bookmakers imply after removing their margin (vig). Teams far from the diagonal are where the interesting story lives.
Elo probabilities are computed via softmax over pre-tournament Elo ratings (source: eloratings.net). This captures relative historical strength but does not account for current injuries, recent form, or manager tactics. Bookmaker probabilities are derived from American opening odds (CBS Sports / Oddspedia) and normalized to remove the overround (vig), so both axes sum to 100%. Odds frozen at tournament start. The diagonal represents perfect agreement between the two models. Divergence ≥ ±1pp is highlighted. Neither model constitutes betting advice.
Select any of the 48 nations to explore their squad, tactical profile, and historical record
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Club | Caps | Goals |
|---|
Based on Elo ratings · Bookmaker line shown below
Select two teams above to see their World Cup history
| # | Player | Team | G | A | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data yet | |||||
Actual points vs Elo-predicted points for each team